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by Peter Francese, New Hampshire Association of REALTORS Fewer homes will be sold this year in New Hampshire compared to last year, perhaps 1,000 to 1,200 fewer. But average residential sale price is off less than one percent, and that’s a whole lot better than other parts of this region or the nation. According to the latest figures from the New England Economic Partnership, New Hampshire’s economic growth, while not great, still continues to outpace the rest of the region, as it has for many years. We have done better than our neighbors, and while that’s fine, there are good reasons for us to be careful not to allow some of the stuff that has happened in other places to stifle our economic growth. “Communities that welcome new families and view them as a critical part of workforce will always do better ….” One of the main reasons our state has enjoyed its above average growth has been the many highly skilled people who moved to our state during the past two decades. But that in-migration has now slowed to near zero, in part because our supply of housing has not kept pace with demand. It’s too easy to say the reason is that they have what we do not – a state income and sales tax. But lots of states with both such taxes and still have robust economic growth. Perhaps the reason has more to do with attitude than with taxes. There are other places in New England (that shall go nameless) that have the attitude, for example, that it’s OK to more heavily tax second-home owners even though those part-time homeowners demand fewer public services. Those who engage in such practices have their reasons (“Hey, they can’t vote here, and besides, they can afford it.”) but choose not to see how much it stifles growth, lowers property values and weakens one of their housing demand legs. Workers represent by far the biggest source of housing demand, however. States and communities that welcome new families and view them as a critical part of workforce will always do better than places that are more interested in stopping growth and preserving the status quo. New Hampshire communities used to be a lot more welcoming of young families than they are now, as evidenced by the recent rapid growth of child-proof housing. So during this Thanksgiving season, let’s be thankful that our housing market has weathered the nationwide downturn so much better that other places. But perhaps we should be mindful that the recovery which we expect and we hope will happen early next year will only occur if we return to our past, when we welcomed new families with children and did not view them as something we need to exclude. October sales figures (please see table below) show that on a year-to-date basis, unit sales are down 9 percent, which represents almost 1,000 fewer units than the same period last year. There were about 500 fewer condominiums sold as well. Taken together, those lost sales meant an average sales volume loss of about $41 million a month. It may be a lot worse elsewhere, but it’s clearly not been a good year for New Hampshire REALTORS®. The table below is sorted by number of units sold year to date. Rockingham County had the smallest decline in sales due in no small part to the higher demand for Seacoast area residences. Prices seem to be holding up better in the more rural and northern parts of the state, even though the number of sales is down quite a bit. Belknap County, where about one in four homes is a vacation home, has the second highest sales prices in the state, and considering the times, a rather large 10 percent jump in average price. This suggests that the ability of second-home buyers to afford the vacation home of their dreams is undiminished. That leg of our housing demand seems to be holding up better than expected, so far. But let’s not forget that about 60 percent of all homes and all home sales in the state take place in the top three counties on the list below, where about 64 percent of New Hampshire residents live. The number of people annually moving to those three counties has dropped 78 percent since 2000. Has their welcome mat been rolled up? January-October 2007 New Hampshire residential (non-condominium) sales
Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN). Statistics are based on information from NNEREN for the respective periods shown for the respective regions in the State of New Hampshire or all towns in the State of New Hampshire. All analysis and commentary related to the statistics is that of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® and not that of NNEREN. |
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