Is the New Hampshire housing market getting ready to heat up?
By GARRY RAYNO
Union Leader Staff
Manchester – Manchester is one of the top 10 places in the country to buy a new home, according to a national media organization.
CNNMoney named the Manchester area the eighth-best in the country for new home appreciation, at 35 percent, over the next five years. Most other hot spots are in Florida or other warm-weather destinations with the exception of Bridgeport, Conn., ranked third, and Fort Collins, Colo., ninth.
Mark Roy, the owner of C M Roy Group of Manchester, said developable land in the area continues to sell at a premium with lots bringing $100,000 to $200,000 depending on size and location.
"It would not shock me to see a 35 percent increase over the next five years. A number of companies and developers are looking for tracks of land to do from-scratch developments," he said.
Sharyn Kelley, broker/owner of Suburban Realty Inc. of Manchester, said while Manchester is a great market, she is not sure about the 35 percent appreciation for new homes over the next five years.
But she predicts the spring market will be strong with interest rates down, educated buyers who are pre-approved and a good selection of properties.
CNNMoney says the state's lack of an income or sales tax makes the Manchester market attractive, as does its proximity to Boston, one of the most expensive housing markets in the country.
The Web site lists the median price for a new home at $226,000 and predicts an increase to $305,000 by 2011. Per capita income is higher in the Manchester area than many of the other top 10 hot spots, at $41,500, and growing to $54,200 in five years, a 31 percent increase.
The hottest market in the country -- according to CNNMoney -- is Panama City, Fla., where the median price of a new home is expected to go from $223,000 today to $383,000 in five years, or a 72 percent increase.
The projected appreciation for the hot spots contrasts to home prices nationwide.
In New Hampshire and around the country, home prices are falling. Last month, November sale prices for single-family homes were down 3 percent from the month before to $291,712 and down 7 percent from a year ago when it was $314,077.
For all residential property including condominiums and manufactured housing, the average price is down 4.7 percent for the year at $259,195, but up 1 percent from October at $246,933.
While the number of all sales was down 16 percent from a year ago and 6.8 percent from October, the number of single-family home sales was up about 3 percent from October.
The New Hampshire statistics are reflective of the national market, which appears to be improving as sales of existing and new homes increased nationwide in November.
Industry officials say the data indicate the housing industry may have reached bottom this fall and is now on a slow rebound.
David Lereah, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, said modest gains are expected for home sales as the market recovers from its recent correction. He said sales should rise gradually through 2007, with prices continuing to decrease slightly until rebounding in the second half of the year.
"We've entered a more sustainable period of home sales now, and we expect greater support for prices over time as inventory levels are eventually drawn down," he said.
Kelley said her agency has been very busy with houses priced below $350,000 moving very well. "Buyers are more sophisticated, they're pre-approved and testing the market. It's a more stable market, a normal real estate market with more normal appreciation," she said.
Kelley said over-priced houses are sitting on the market, but houses that are priced right are selling. "Your seasoned brokers -- people who've been (in real estate) for 15 or 20 years -- have seen the cycle before. This is a good market. I'm looking forward to a very busy spring," Kelley said.
Nationwide, housing inventory fell 1 percent at the end of November to 3.82 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median price for an existing home was $218,000 in November, a drop of 3.1 percent from a year ago.
Condominium sales rose 3.1 percent from October, but were 13.6 percent below a year ago although the median sales price remained the same at $224,600.
The Northeast saw a 6 percent increase in the sales of existing homes in November, which is 4.5 percent below a year ago. The median sale price was down 2.2 percent from a year ago, at $269,000.
While the Midwest experienced increased sales in November of nearly 10 percent, the West and the South had much smaller increases.
According to figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau last week, new homes sales rose 3.4 percent in November, the third gain in the last four months. However, the number of sales was down 15.3 percent from November 2005.
The median sales price of new homes for November was $251,700, the second-highest on record, to $257,000 in April. The median price in October was $248,500.
The average sale price for November was $294,900.
